Calgary had a pretty subdued offseason given their lackluster season. No stars were traded. The deck chairs we mostly re-arranged. So the question is…how do they improve? Th Gaudreau window remains open, but not for much longer.
Here’s my foray into building forward lines for next season:
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk Mangiapane - Backlund - Leivo Bennett - Monahan - Dube Lucic - Ryan - Simon
Rules:
Assume Treliving is done, so no new major trades or signings. Consider that you have to build a line to take on hard matchups. Show your work if you suggest whacky combination.
I don't know how to feel about Lindholm in the middle but it sure sounds like it's something that Ward is at least going to explore.
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Mangipane
I think this line will give Gaudreau some space to look for more offense as Lindholm and Mangiapane can both hold their own in all 3 zones.
Tkachuk-Backlund-Leivo
Tkachuk needs a center who can transport the puck to the offensive zone, and Backlund is the best on the team at that. Leivo has an under rated shot and could benefit from Tkachuk's playmaking.
Bennett-Monahan-Dube
Bennett and Dube will be able to dig out pucks for Monahan and their speed helps cover up Monahan's lack of speed. Monahan will also get prime time on PP1.
Lucic-Ryan-Nordstrom
I know most have Simon here and for good reason, but I like the energy and physicality Nordstrom brings and he is elite on the PK.
Giordano-Andersson
I think there is a chance that Valimaki could play on this pairing with Gio, but to start this gives you an elite 1st pair.
Hanifin-Tanev
Tanev gets a bad rap for shot CF metrics but he still does make a good first pass out of his zone and is elite at winning board battles.
Valimaki-Nesterov
Like others have said Valimaki won't stay on this pairing for long.
I don't think this team is as bad offensively as they were last year. I think they are somewhere between what they were in 2018/19 and 2019/20. I think if they move some players around in their lineup they can be a lot more difficult to matchup against.
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangipange
This is a great shut down line to go up against other teams’ top units while also producing offence.
Gaudreau - Monahan - Leivo
I think you must keep 13 & 23 together. The main reason why is because of Sean Monahan's inability to produce away from Gaudreau. He gets outplayed badly at 5 on 5 when away from 13. If I were GMBT I would look very long and hard at moving on from Sean. Put Leivo with these two for his finishing ability and size.
Bennett - Backlund - Dube
Solid 3rd line that can score and play a little bit of D. I like the idea of having Bennett and Backlund together as Backlund seems to elevate the play of his line mates.
Nordstrom - Ryan - Simon
I think this should be the 4th line on most nights. I think this unit could shut down opposing team’s 2nd/3rd lines and allow 23 & 13 to play some favorable offensive matchups. I don't think Lucic is good enough to be consistently in the lineup. Yes, he had a good 5-6 game run in the playoffs, but don't be fooled by it. His hands and skating are long gone. I would use him in games against heavier, tougher teams (Edmonton, Vegas, San Jose, etc.).
Giordano - Andersson
Valamaki - Tanev
Hanifin - N/A (I think GMBT will fill this spot before the start of the season)
I think the Flames D core is pretty solid. The Tanev contract is a disaster waiting to happen, it will be the next Troy Brouwer/James Neal deal. But I think Tanev will be ok in his first season. Treliving needs to make the right side deeper. They could use Hanifin as a trade chip and then replace him on the left side with Conner Mackey.
From this perspective, we have a line potentially capable of moving the play in a consistent sense, offensively. This will give the team and fans an opportunity to see if Mangiapane can play at an even higher level to match his underlying impacts that have been identified throughout the course of 19-20.
Gaudreau - Monahan - Leivo
There's zero sense in breaking up the tandem that has been together for what feels like an eternity. You're only damaging any further value you can extract from a pure point-creation perspective. Leivo is given an opportunity to see if he can hang with players who have produced at a high-end for extended periods of their career. Regardless of a down year, they still have the track record of being capable, if given the right environmental factors to thrive in.
This means: heavy OZ starts and/or OTF usage.
Bennett - Backlund - Simon
This is the prototypical option for a "shutdown" line. I don't think there is any value in putting Dube there to start due to his underlying impacts being significantly weaker than fans seem to believe. While his playoff performance in a vacuum is awesome and should be praised, we need a prolonged period of observation to see if he has taken a step forward. This allows Backlund to slot into softer minutes as his age-based regression is occurring. His two-way impacts beyond shot metrics have been slipping. This line also gives Bennett a potential option to maximize any value he has to be traded mid-season. He should be dealt given his dreadful impact from the SPAR/WAR perspective.
Lucic - Ryan - Dube
Scraps and soft usage despite Ryan's ability to be useful in minutes at 3C. This would also continue the trend of maximizing the SPAR/WAR value Lucic provides, because whether folks want to accept it or not, there is value in what he offers from this perspective.
Agree on the top line with Kent. It gives the team the most offensive firepower with a defensive edge if need be in Lindholm/Tkachuk. Gaudreau is the best offensive player on the team, you simply cannot leave him off the top line.
I believe Mangiapane and Dube can do the work needed for Monahan to thrive as a pure sniping center as well, and that gives a great secondary offensive punch on the second line. Dube is also good enough to be in the top-six; he's the top-six addition for the team this year.
The third line is the primary shutdown line with Backlund leading the charge. Bennett with Backlund has worked (55.1% CF with Backlund over the past three seasons), and Leivo's possession stats are encouraging. This should allow the line to survive in the defensive zone.
I like to approach my theoretical line combinations from the perspective of “What will the head coach do”.
My preference for high flying offence starkly contrasts Wards shutdown defence style he employed during the playoffs
I believe Ward will keep things largely the same:
Johnny - Mony - Dubé
Tkachuk - Backlund - Mange
Leivo - Bennett - Lindholm
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
The only real swap is the Lindholm/Dubé switch, due to the top line and pair of 13/23 needing a forechecker to dig in the corners and retrieve the puck. Play a role like Zach Hyman does for the Leafs elite forwards.
Lindholm is by far too skilled for the third line, but extra minutes will be found for him on the PP & PK where he plays a prominent role.
The other thing I like to touch on is it down and searching for a goal late, Lindholm can be elevated if need be, but based on how 13/23/28 played in the playoffs something on that line needs shuffled.
Now, what would I like to see?
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Mange
Tkachuk - Monahan - Dubé
Bennett - Backlund - Leivo
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
Geoff Ward will never put two players of 13/88 height on a line together which is a Shane because nobody outside maybe Bennett has more fight in them than Mangiapane. He was also second most valuable last season by WAR (via EH) and isn’t afraid to dig in the corners.
Monahan gets flanked by players with skill that will feed him picks to his home in the slot
The third line will hit hard, knock players off their game and ask questions later. Bennett’s miracle run as a C in the playoffs wasn’t enough to sell me off the previous 300 games of sample size provided.
I think the Flames will have a lot of flexibility this year with their lines. However I do think we might see 4 “pairs” of forwards to start the season with the team really wanting to roll 4 lines, and the team will go from there.
I see the pairs as:
Tkachuk - Lindholm
Gaudreau - Monahan
Mangiapane - Backlund
Dube - Bennett
Then I think you can build the lines as follows:
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Simon: Simon had played shotgun with strong two way forwards in the past.
Gaudreau - Monahan - Leivo: Levio is a decent finisher than has strong underlying numbers, could fit in well here.
Mangiapane-Backlund-Ryan: This line could be sneaky good. Mangiapane has good chemistry with both guys and all three can handle themselves in the defensive zone.
Lucic - Bennett - Dube: Keep the strong line from the playoffs together.
If you need a goal in the third and are chasing a lead you can pop Mangiapane into Simons spot on the Lindholm line for a different look.
Do you change that? I think you can, and in the case with the Lindholm experiment I think they want to.
So then you have Lindholm, Monahan, Backlund, Bennett, Ryan ... 5. I think any of Monahan, Bennett and Ryan can move to the wings which would take you back to four.
Bennett is part of this. Was his playoff play a small sample size? Because he played with Dube? Because he played center?
So how's this?
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Dube
Tkachuk - Monahan - Mangiapane
Bennett - Backlund - Leivo
Lucic - Ryan - Simon.
That gives Gaudreau players with speed, plus a defensive conscious. Monahan with two guys that love the corner work leaving him to be the trigger man. Bennett gets reunited with his rookie year center.
Here’s the way I look at it. As far as the top 6 goes (for the purposes of this I’m saying Dube will be in the top 6 and Backlund won’t) we have 3 guys who are going to play well and hard despite who they are playing with(Tkachuk, Lindholm, Mangiapane), 2 guys who are very skilled but need the right line mates to help them (Gaudreau and Monahan), and 1 guy that works hard and plays well but is a step below the others as far as skills and experience go (Dube). My goal is to mix these players up so you don’t have one really good line and one that is a toss up whether they work or not (I.e. Gaudreau-Monahan-Dube). Ward has said he wants Lindholm and Bennett to play centre this year so (assuming no trades) let’s say Backlund moves to the wing because we have 5 centres now. Here’s what looks best to me considering all that:
Mangiapane - Lindholm - Gaudreau
Tkachuk - Monahan - Dube
Lievo - Bennett - Backlund
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
Nordstrom
For defence I think Andersson is ready for top pair minutes and plays a similar style to Giordano so I think he could learn a lot from him. Valimaki seems ready for the second pair although it’s hard to tell when he’s not playing against NHL level talent. I’d start him on the third pair and if he plays well he can replace Hanifin on the second pair. So here’s my defence (ignore what side they are playing on):
Giordano - Andersson
Hanifin - Tanev
Valimaki -Kylington
Nesterov
Goalies are pretty obvious so I won’t bore you with an explanation:
I want my best three forwards on the first line: Johnny Lindholm Tkachuk
I want some scoring on my second line: Mange Monahan Dube
My third line needs to be a shut down unit. I like the idea of the third line taking in tough assignments rather than the second line as has been the case for the last few years: Bennett Backlund Leivo. Note: Bennett has played his best hockey for the Flames with Backlund as his centre. Note 2: Leivo’s possession numbers suggest he can handle the shut down line responsibility. This line should also chip in offensively at a reasonable clip.
My fourth line is a fourth line: Lucic Ryan Simon
Kent, I certainly enjoy this exercise more than arguing (respectfully) about the merits of public money being used on a new arena...
I come up with the same lineup as Kent, except I don't know Leivo from a hole in the ice, so I've got him swapped with Dube.
Lindholm is the best option for 1C and I like to see that line be as good as possible so he gets Johnny and Chucky.
Backs is the obvious choice for top shut down C. I want to see him with some quick guys who have effective aggression in the D zone and some scoring touch too so he gets Mangi and Dube (but maybe Leivo is a better option - I don't know him).
Monny is the 3C because. He gets Bennett and... Leivo?
I was shocked by the level of play from Looch in the playoffs. Maybe he gets some time on line 3 sometimes.
I think the default starting point for this exercise is 13/23 - either they're together or they're not. (Or, one is gone, but as noted, that is not - yet - the case). I'm choosing to split them up, because, good lord, it's time. A year and a half of blah is enough.
Of course, the new challenge is finding a line to play tough minutes now, because I think we generally can agree that neither Monahan nor Johnny can be on that line. Assuming that Lindholm will be a center (it's either him or Bennett making the move to the more valuable position, and for now that's my position), you have to assume Ryan will be 4th line center, which makes the Backlund centered line the default "checking" line. (Or Lindholm, but he's better offensively than Backlund).
OK...so Gaudreau on 1st line, Monahan on 2nd, Backlund on 3rd and Ryan on 4th. Obviously, this also leaves Lindholm on 1st line - so far, so good. Not breaking any new ground, here! I feel like I like Bennett with Backlund, based both on history and Bennett's "hands" not belonging on a scoring line. Him scoring his inevitable 40 points with Backlund (while playing tough minutes) is better than getting those 40 points with 13 or 23. (I like Bennett, I swear).
I'm going to default to the same 4th line as Kent and drop Lucic/Simon to that group (and Nordstrom, I guess - count me as one of those not too confident in Lucic's playoff run being his new normal, but I assume he'll be in there more than not).
So that leaves Mangiapane (my favorite), Tkachuk, Leivo and Dube to sprinkle around. This is tough. I think I prefer Mangiapane with Gaudreau, but I'm not sure I like leaving Tkachuk with Monahan. I don't really know enough about Leivo, too be honest, to be sure he can be the puck carrier that line would need. I do think Tkachuk is a next-level passer, though, so I'm going with it. That leaves Dube with Backlund/Bennett, and while I don't think he's quite there on being on a checking type line, I'm counting on the Backlund magic with young players working on Dube.
Note, I'm messing up the left-right handedness, but I'll live with it.
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Mangiapane
Tkachuk - Monahan - Leivo
Bennett - Backlund - Dube
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
As for D, I may be the only person left who things Kylington hasn't been given the right opportunity yet - he always seems to be shunted to 7th D status (or worse). But he's in my top 6.
Gio - Andersson
Hanifin - Tanev
Valimaki - Kylington (wrong side, but he's there anyway).
And, I'd go with Markstrom in goal, in case anyone is asking!
I've thought about this a lot this offseason and I think you'd have to organize this based on a piece by piece system. Start by looking at what the coach has already stated for roles, then consider which guys have shown chemistry in the past, and finally move players into centre/winger pairs (or trios if they've shown to be effective but that's more rare).
So there's already been confirmation that Lindholm will likely start at centre. And today it was announced that Bennett is expected to play centre too (Ryan Dittrick's twitter). That makes it tough because then we're looking at five centres... So moving on to what has worked/pairs formed I would try:
Johnny/Lindholm
Tkachuk/Backlund
Dube/Monahan
Bennett/Luc
Filling in gaps:
Johnny - Lindholm - Mang
Tkachuk - Backlund - Leivo
Dube - Monahan - Ryan (?)
Lucic - Bennett - Simon
Nordtrom
Again, it's tough with 5 centres how I see it: we now have a RH shot on each major line and a combo of grit, speed, and 2-way ability. The third line is the one that looks the most odd but with Monahan's wrist history, he could maybe ease up on the amount of faceoffs taken (especially on offhand faceoffs). Split time up as line 1 and 2 evenly > third > fourth.
As for defence - I'm old-school I like LH-RH with kid-veteran if possible:
Gio-Raz
Hanifin-Tanev
Vali-Kylington/Nesterov/Mackey
That 6th dman spot is going to constantly rotating no matter the case due to competition.
I expect Tanev to be injured all the time which would really come up with some wacky mixes... Hopefully he can stay healthy.
I have to preface this by saying I'm fairly confident one or both of Monahan and Gaudreau will be traded by 2021-22 unless crazy success happens this season. That is why on one hand, I really want to separate them, to force Monahan to carry the puck more and create more on his own but on the other hand, am nervous that doing so will allow scouts to see his true warts and realize he's actually maybe not all that great (yes, I know scouts are paid to see behind the stats, but GMs overpay EVERY YEAR for players who really aren't all that good). I also do think he might be much better suited for the wing, but that's too big of a risk and I don't want to write 20 different lineups.
Now, with that said, here's what I'd like to see:
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Bennett
Tkachuk - Monahan - Mangiapane
Leivo - Backlund - Dube
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
Reasoning:
Line 1: Lindholm had kind of taken over as the "banger" and puck-retriever on the Gaudreau-Monahan line when he came over but was much more skilled than Ferland, which allowed that line to flourish. However, I think he brings a lot more skill and ability to create than Monahan does, which is why I feel him centering Gaudreau will be an improvement. Having Bennett (yes, I love Bennett) on the line will allow him to take over the "banger" responsibilities while keeping that ability to take faceoffs on his strong side. I also think Bennett is able to do a lot more than Monahan with the puck on his stick and combined with the fact that Bennett has actually had really strong individual underlying's over the last 3 seasons (1st among Flames in ixGF/60 and iSCF/60, 3rd in iHDCF/60), I think playing with actual talent for ONCE will allow us to finally see him flourish and if not, know for certain what he is. Plus, with Lindholm's and Bennett's abilities to both play the body and go into the corners, Gaudreau will have a lot more ice to work his magic.
Line 2: Very slow line which is worrying, yes. But with Tkachuk's and Mangiapane's incredible ability to drive play at an elite level, this will allow Monahan to worry much less on the defensive end of the ice knowing he has two elite defensive forwards on his wings, which will mask his defensive shortcomings, whereas with Gaudreau and Lindholm, Monahan really had to focus in the defensive end with Lindholm, who I would argue actually isn't as good as Tkachuk and Mangiapane defensively, although that's no sleight to him. Spending a lot more time in the offensive zone while getting to worry less about the defense will allow Monahan to flourish with the incredible, never-give-up talents of Tkachuk and Mangiapane, which will also likely lead to Monahan subconsciously giving more effort.
Line 3: Yes, I know Leivo is a right-shooting LW/RW so why not have him and Dube on their natural sides? One, Leivo had his best success on LW last season with the Canucks (although I believe he played about 50/50 on the LW and RW last season, so I miiiight be wrong). Two, Dube, as we all know, was an absolute monster in the Playoffs playing RW. Having Leivo's shot on his off-side combined with Dube's amazing speed on the right side will leave the defense having no idea what to expect. Plus, combining Leivo's and Backlund's fantastic play-driving ability will allow Dube to flourish and truly develop into the two-way stud he was projected to be when drafted. He was always viewed as a possession monster as a prospect, but hasn't quite shown that in the NHL. This will finally allow him to take it to the opposition while at the same time developing his defensive game alongside a defensive stud like Backlund.
Line 4: Lucic and Ryan played their best hockey with eachother last season. They were both significantly worse away from eachother but combined to form a very solid duo. Having them on the 4th line rather than the 3rd line this season will allow them to take even more advantage of the opposition. While Lucic brings very little in terms of offense, he is undeniably a very smart player and always knows where to be, which has made him very effective in the defensive end. Combine that with Ryan's two-way ability and Simon's playmaking ability (Simon ranks very, very high in regards to shot-assists, something Ryan and Lucic could really benefit from), I think this line will very easily outperform their competition. Plus, they've all been very strong play-drivers over the years.
I think these 4 lines all have the ability to outperform their competition to a significant degree and bring skillsets that really compliment their linemates well. I see a lot of offense coming out of this group of lines, while also being able to completely control play throughout the season and allowing Markstrom to see much less workload in net.
I think a lot of people would consider yours a whacky combination. I don't... but I think it's light years from what the highly conservative Flames would consider.
Guadreau - Monahan - Leivo
Tkachuk - Backlund - Lindholm
Dube - Ryan - Mangiapane
Lucic - Bennett - Simon
Line 1: Offense Line. Should be really good at putting the puck in the net think of Leivo as the +1 (Like how the Canucks used to have a Sedins +1 line. Heavy O-zone starts.
Line 2: Same deal except that Lindholm is a significantly more talented +1. They shoulder the toughest PVP minutes. I'd think of them more as Line 1B then Line 2.
Line 3: Junior line 2, Ryan is the 3rd best Center so let him be the 3rd Center.
Line 4: The "Energy" line. Fortunately they can play a little. Should do well so long as they're deployed as a 4th line (so low leverage spots against bottom 6 comp).
Option 1 (not so crazy changes): This one keeps Monahan and Gaudreau together. Yeah, I know, fans are tired of this, but Monahan know how to score and #13 is an awesome playmaker.
However Wardo can't start him in the D-zone how he (wrongly) did during playoffs.
Gaudreau- Monahan- Dube
Mangiapane - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Bennett - Backlund - Leivo
Lucic (ewww) - Ryan - Simon
Option 2 (let's go crazy) - Well if you can't trade players, let's blow the lines up.
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Simon
Tkachuk-Monahan-Dube
Bennett-Backlund-Mangiapane
Lucic-Ryan-Leivo
First line Simon alert!!!!!!
Just to play devil's advocate and have some fun: Haynes style.
This is completely against any analytics advising.
However, considering his experience with Crosby and Malkin I would give him a chance to show what he could do.
This would spread the wealth and create a second and third line with 6 very good players.
still don't think you break up the Monahan Gaudreau pairing just yet.
Tkachuk Lindholm Mangiapane
Gaudreau Monahan Dube
Bennett Backlund Leivo
Lucic Ryan Simon
The top line gets top line minutes, the 2nd line gets easy minutes for scoring, 3rd line gets some of the tough minutes the top line doesnt see, and the 4th line can be a defensively sound line which provide a net zero presence.
Bottom two lines can do a little more heavy lifting than last year, second line still good defensively but with a touch more firepower (hopefully), give the top line all the high ground they can handle.
I don't know how to feel about Lindholm in the middle but it sure sounds like it's something that Ward is at least going to explore.
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Mangipane
I think this line will give Gaudreau some space to look for more offense as Lindholm and Mangiapane can both hold their own in all 3 zones.
Tkachuk-Backlund-Leivo
Tkachuk needs a center who can transport the puck to the offensive zone, and Backlund is the best on the team at that. Leivo has an under rated shot and could benefit from Tkachuk's playmaking.
Bennett-Monahan-Dube
Bennett and Dube will be able to dig out pucks for Monahan and their speed helps cover up Monahan's lack of speed. Monahan will also get prime time on PP1.
Lucic-Ryan-Nordstrom
I know most have Simon here and for good reason, but I like the energy and physicality Nordstrom brings and he is elite on the PK.
Giordano-Andersson
I think there is a chance that Valimaki could play on this pairing with Gio, but to start this gives you an elite 1st pair.
Hanifin-Tanev
Tanev gets a bad rap for shot CF metrics but he still does make a good first pass out of his zone and is elite at winning board battles.
Valimaki-Nesterov
Like others have said Valimaki won't stay on this pairing for long.
I don't think this team is as bad offensively as they were last year. I think they are somewhere between what they were in 2018/19 and 2019/20. I think if they move some players around in their lineup they can be a lot more difficult to matchup against.
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangipange
This is a great shut down line to go up against other teams’ top units while also producing offence.
Gaudreau - Monahan - Leivo
I think you must keep 13 & 23 together. The main reason why is because of Sean Monahan's inability to produce away from Gaudreau. He gets outplayed badly at 5 on 5 when away from 13. If I were GMBT I would look very long and hard at moving on from Sean. Put Leivo with these two for his finishing ability and size.
Bennett - Backlund - Dube
Solid 3rd line that can score and play a little bit of D. I like the idea of having Bennett and Backlund together as Backlund seems to elevate the play of his line mates.
Nordstrom - Ryan - Simon
I think this should be the 4th line on most nights. I think this unit could shut down opposing team’s 2nd/3rd lines and allow 23 & 13 to play some favorable offensive matchups. I don't think Lucic is good enough to be consistently in the lineup. Yes, he had a good 5-6 game run in the playoffs, but don't be fooled by it. His hands and skating are long gone. I would use him in games against heavier, tougher teams (Edmonton, Vegas, San Jose, etc.).
Giordano - Andersson
Valamaki - Tanev
Hanifin - N/A (I think GMBT will fill this spot before the start of the season)
I think the Flames D core is pretty solid. The Tanev contract is a disaster waiting to happen, it will be the next Troy Brouwer/James Neal deal. But I think Tanev will be ok in his first season. Treliving needs to make the right side deeper. They could use Hanifin as a trade chip and then replace him on the left side with Conner Mackey.
What do you guys think of this?
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangiapane
From this perspective, we have a line potentially capable of moving the play in a consistent sense, offensively. This will give the team and fans an opportunity to see if Mangiapane can play at an even higher level to match his underlying impacts that have been identified throughout the course of 19-20.
Gaudreau - Monahan - Leivo
There's zero sense in breaking up the tandem that has been together for what feels like an eternity. You're only damaging any further value you can extract from a pure point-creation perspective. Leivo is given an opportunity to see if he can hang with players who have produced at a high-end for extended periods of their career. Regardless of a down year, they still have the track record of being capable, if given the right environmental factors to thrive in.
This means: heavy OZ starts and/or OTF usage.
Bennett - Backlund - Simon
This is the prototypical option for a "shutdown" line. I don't think there is any value in putting Dube there to start due to his underlying impacts being significantly weaker than fans seem to believe. While his playoff performance in a vacuum is awesome and should be praised, we need a prolonged period of observation to see if he has taken a step forward. This allows Backlund to slot into softer minutes as his age-based regression is occurring. His two-way impacts beyond shot metrics have been slipping. This line also gives Bennett a potential option to maximize any value he has to be traded mid-season. He should be dealt given his dreadful impact from the SPAR/WAR perspective.
Lucic - Ryan - Dube
Scraps and soft usage despite Ryan's ability to be useful in minutes at 3C. This would also continue the trend of maximizing the SPAR/WAR value Lucic provides, because whether folks want to accept it or not, there is value in what he offers from this perspective.
Alrighty here we go.
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Mangiapane - Monahan - Dube
Bennett - Backlund - Leivo
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
Agree on the top line with Kent. It gives the team the most offensive firepower with a defensive edge if need be in Lindholm/Tkachuk. Gaudreau is the best offensive player on the team, you simply cannot leave him off the top line.
I believe Mangiapane and Dube can do the work needed for Monahan to thrive as a pure sniping center as well, and that gives a great secondary offensive punch on the second line. Dube is also good enough to be in the top-six; he's the top-six addition for the team this year.
The third line is the primary shutdown line with Backlund leading the charge. Bennett with Backlund has worked (55.1% CF with Backlund over the past three seasons), and Leivo's possession stats are encouraging. This should allow the line to survive in the defensive zone.
The fourth line is the fourth line.
I like to approach my theoretical line combinations from the perspective of “What will the head coach do”.
My preference for high flying offence starkly contrasts Wards shutdown defence style he employed during the playoffs
I believe Ward will keep things largely the same:
Johnny - Mony - Dubé
Tkachuk - Backlund - Mange
Leivo - Bennett - Lindholm
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
The only real swap is the Lindholm/Dubé switch, due to the top line and pair of 13/23 needing a forechecker to dig in the corners and retrieve the puck. Play a role like Zach Hyman does for the Leafs elite forwards.
Lindholm is by far too skilled for the third line, but extra minutes will be found for him on the PP & PK where he plays a prominent role.
The other thing I like to touch on is it down and searching for a goal late, Lindholm can be elevated if need be, but based on how 13/23/28 played in the playoffs something on that line needs shuffled.
Now, what would I like to see?
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Mange
Tkachuk - Monahan - Dubé
Bennett - Backlund - Leivo
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
Geoff Ward will never put two players of 13/88 height on a line together which is a Shane because nobody outside maybe Bennett has more fight in them than Mangiapane. He was also second most valuable last season by WAR (via EH) and isn’t afraid to dig in the corners.
Monahan gets flanked by players with skill that will feed him picks to his home in the slot
The third line will hit hard, knock players off their game and ask questions later. Bennett’s miracle run as a C in the playoffs wasn’t enough to sell me off the previous 300 games of sample size provided.
Here's how I'd break down deployment for my theoretical setup:
Lindholm line ----> Tough matchups, middling offensive zone starts
Backlund line ----> Tough match-ups, middling defensive zone starts
Monahan line ----> Bottom six match-ups, heavy offensive zone starts
Ryan line ----> Bottom six match-ups, heavy defensive zone starts
How about D pairings?
Giordano - Andersson
Hanifin - Tanev
Valimaki - Nesterov / Petrovic etc.
I think Valimaki might move up the depth chart quickly. If he can actually play the RS, it firms things up a bit and gives them options.
I think the Flames will have a lot of flexibility this year with their lines. However I do think we might see 4 “pairs” of forwards to start the season with the team really wanting to roll 4 lines, and the team will go from there.
I see the pairs as:
Tkachuk - Lindholm
Gaudreau - Monahan
Mangiapane - Backlund
Dube - Bennett
Then I think you can build the lines as follows:
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Simon: Simon had played shotgun with strong two way forwards in the past.
Gaudreau - Monahan - Leivo: Levio is a decent finisher than has strong underlying numbers, could fit in well here.
Mangiapane-Backlund-Ryan: This line could be sneaky good. Mangiapane has good chemistry with both guys and all three can handle themselves in the defensive zone.
Lucic - Bennett - Dube: Keep the strong line from the playoffs together.
If you need a goal in the third and are chasing a lead you can pop Mangiapane into Simons spot on the Lindholm line for a different look.
I think everything starts with the centers.
Current list ... Monahan, Backlund, Bennett, Ryan
Do you change that? I think you can, and in the case with the Lindholm experiment I think they want to.
So then you have Lindholm, Monahan, Backlund, Bennett, Ryan ... 5. I think any of Monahan, Bennett and Ryan can move to the wings which would take you back to four.
Bennett is part of this. Was his playoff play a small sample size? Because he played with Dube? Because he played center?
So how's this?
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Dube
Tkachuk - Monahan - Mangiapane
Bennett - Backlund - Leivo
Lucic - Ryan - Simon.
That gives Gaudreau players with speed, plus a defensive conscious. Monahan with two guys that love the corner work leaving him to be the trigger man. Bennett gets reunited with his rookie year center.
Wow Monahan to 3rd line centre. Feels like this takes away from his skill set which is finishing. I would like to see him on the wing. Am I crazy?
Here’s the way I look at it. As far as the top 6 goes (for the purposes of this I’m saying Dube will be in the top 6 and Backlund won’t) we have 3 guys who are going to play well and hard despite who they are playing with(Tkachuk, Lindholm, Mangiapane), 2 guys who are very skilled but need the right line mates to help them (Gaudreau and Monahan), and 1 guy that works hard and plays well but is a step below the others as far as skills and experience go (Dube). My goal is to mix these players up so you don’t have one really good line and one that is a toss up whether they work or not (I.e. Gaudreau-Monahan-Dube). Ward has said he wants Lindholm and Bennett to play centre this year so (assuming no trades) let’s say Backlund moves to the wing because we have 5 centres now. Here’s what looks best to me considering all that:
Mangiapane - Lindholm - Gaudreau
Tkachuk - Monahan - Dube
Lievo - Bennett - Backlund
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
Nordstrom
For defence I think Andersson is ready for top pair minutes and plays a similar style to Giordano so I think he could learn a lot from him. Valimaki seems ready for the second pair although it’s hard to tell when he’s not playing against NHL level talent. I’d start him on the third pair and if he plays well he can replace Hanifin on the second pair. So here’s my defence (ignore what side they are playing on):
Giordano - Andersson
Hanifin - Tanev
Valimaki -Kylington
Nesterov
Goalies are pretty obvious so I won’t bore you with an explanation:
Markstrom
Rittich
I want my best three forwards on the first line: Johnny Lindholm Tkachuk
I want some scoring on my second line: Mange Monahan Dube
My third line needs to be a shut down unit. I like the idea of the third line taking in tough assignments rather than the second line as has been the case for the last few years: Bennett Backlund Leivo. Note: Bennett has played his best hockey for the Flames with Backlund as his centre. Note 2: Leivo’s possession numbers suggest he can handle the shut down line responsibility. This line should also chip in offensively at a reasonable clip.
My fourth line is a fourth line: Lucic Ryan Simon
Kent, I certainly enjoy this exercise more than arguing (respectfully) about the merits of public money being used on a new arena...
Gaudreau-Lindhom-Dube
Tkachuk-Backlund-Leivo
Mangiapane-Monahan-Ryan
Lucic-Bennett-Simon
I come up with the same lineup as Kent, except I don't know Leivo from a hole in the ice, so I've got him swapped with Dube.
Lindholm is the best option for 1C and I like to see that line be as good as possible so he gets Johnny and Chucky.
Backs is the obvious choice for top shut down C. I want to see him with some quick guys who have effective aggression in the D zone and some scoring touch too so he gets Mangi and Dube (but maybe Leivo is a better option - I don't know him).
Monny is the 3C because. He gets Bennett and... Leivo?
I was shocked by the level of play from Looch in the playoffs. Maybe he gets some time on line 3 sometimes.
I think the default starting point for this exercise is 13/23 - either they're together or they're not. (Or, one is gone, but as noted, that is not - yet - the case). I'm choosing to split them up, because, good lord, it's time. A year and a half of blah is enough.
Of course, the new challenge is finding a line to play tough minutes now, because I think we generally can agree that neither Monahan nor Johnny can be on that line. Assuming that Lindholm will be a center (it's either him or Bennett making the move to the more valuable position, and for now that's my position), you have to assume Ryan will be 4th line center, which makes the Backlund centered line the default "checking" line. (Or Lindholm, but he's better offensively than Backlund).
OK...so Gaudreau on 1st line, Monahan on 2nd, Backlund on 3rd and Ryan on 4th. Obviously, this also leaves Lindholm on 1st line - so far, so good. Not breaking any new ground, here! I feel like I like Bennett with Backlund, based both on history and Bennett's "hands" not belonging on a scoring line. Him scoring his inevitable 40 points with Backlund (while playing tough minutes) is better than getting those 40 points with 13 or 23. (I like Bennett, I swear).
I'm going to default to the same 4th line as Kent and drop Lucic/Simon to that group (and Nordstrom, I guess - count me as one of those not too confident in Lucic's playoff run being his new normal, but I assume he'll be in there more than not).
So that leaves Mangiapane (my favorite), Tkachuk, Leivo and Dube to sprinkle around. This is tough. I think I prefer Mangiapane with Gaudreau, but I'm not sure I like leaving Tkachuk with Monahan. I don't really know enough about Leivo, too be honest, to be sure he can be the puck carrier that line would need. I do think Tkachuk is a next-level passer, though, so I'm going with it. That leaves Dube with Backlund/Bennett, and while I don't think he's quite there on being on a checking type line, I'm counting on the Backlund magic with young players working on Dube.
Note, I'm messing up the left-right handedness, but I'll live with it.
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Mangiapane
Tkachuk - Monahan - Leivo
Bennett - Backlund - Dube
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
As for D, I may be the only person left who things Kylington hasn't been given the right opportunity yet - he always seems to be shunted to 7th D status (or worse). But he's in my top 6.
Gio - Andersson
Hanifin - Tanev
Valimaki - Kylington (wrong side, but he's there anyway).
And, I'd go with Markstrom in goal, in case anyone is asking!
This looks fun!
I've thought about this a lot this offseason and I think you'd have to organize this based on a piece by piece system. Start by looking at what the coach has already stated for roles, then consider which guys have shown chemistry in the past, and finally move players into centre/winger pairs (or trios if they've shown to be effective but that's more rare).
So there's already been confirmation that Lindholm will likely start at centre. And today it was announced that Bennett is expected to play centre too (Ryan Dittrick's twitter). That makes it tough because then we're looking at five centres... So moving on to what has worked/pairs formed I would try:
Johnny/Lindholm
Tkachuk/Backlund
Dube/Monahan
Bennett/Luc
Filling in gaps:
Johnny - Lindholm - Mang
Tkachuk - Backlund - Leivo
Dube - Monahan - Ryan (?)
Lucic - Bennett - Simon
Nordtrom
Again, it's tough with 5 centres how I see it: we now have a RH shot on each major line and a combo of grit, speed, and 2-way ability. The third line is the one that looks the most odd but with Monahan's wrist history, he could maybe ease up on the amount of faceoffs taken (especially on offhand faceoffs). Split time up as line 1 and 2 evenly > third > fourth.
As for defence - I'm old-school I like LH-RH with kid-veteran if possible:
Gio-Raz
Hanifin-Tanev
Vali-Kylington/Nesterov/Mackey
That 6th dman spot is going to constantly rotating no matter the case due to competition.
I expect Tanev to be injured all the time which would really come up with some wacky mixes... Hopefully he can stay healthy.
I have to preface this by saying I'm fairly confident one or both of Monahan and Gaudreau will be traded by 2021-22 unless crazy success happens this season. That is why on one hand, I really want to separate them, to force Monahan to carry the puck more and create more on his own but on the other hand, am nervous that doing so will allow scouts to see his true warts and realize he's actually maybe not all that great (yes, I know scouts are paid to see behind the stats, but GMs overpay EVERY YEAR for players who really aren't all that good). I also do think he might be much better suited for the wing, but that's too big of a risk and I don't want to write 20 different lineups.
Now, with that said, here's what I'd like to see:
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Bennett
Tkachuk - Monahan - Mangiapane
Leivo - Backlund - Dube
Lucic - Ryan - Simon
Reasoning:
Line 1: Lindholm had kind of taken over as the "banger" and puck-retriever on the Gaudreau-Monahan line when he came over but was much more skilled than Ferland, which allowed that line to flourish. However, I think he brings a lot more skill and ability to create than Monahan does, which is why I feel him centering Gaudreau will be an improvement. Having Bennett (yes, I love Bennett) on the line will allow him to take over the "banger" responsibilities while keeping that ability to take faceoffs on his strong side. I also think Bennett is able to do a lot more than Monahan with the puck on his stick and combined with the fact that Bennett has actually had really strong individual underlying's over the last 3 seasons (1st among Flames in ixGF/60 and iSCF/60, 3rd in iHDCF/60), I think playing with actual talent for ONCE will allow us to finally see him flourish and if not, know for certain what he is. Plus, with Lindholm's and Bennett's abilities to both play the body and go into the corners, Gaudreau will have a lot more ice to work his magic.
Line 2: Very slow line which is worrying, yes. But with Tkachuk's and Mangiapane's incredible ability to drive play at an elite level, this will allow Monahan to worry much less on the defensive end of the ice knowing he has two elite defensive forwards on his wings, which will mask his defensive shortcomings, whereas with Gaudreau and Lindholm, Monahan really had to focus in the defensive end with Lindholm, who I would argue actually isn't as good as Tkachuk and Mangiapane defensively, although that's no sleight to him. Spending a lot more time in the offensive zone while getting to worry less about the defense will allow Monahan to flourish with the incredible, never-give-up talents of Tkachuk and Mangiapane, which will also likely lead to Monahan subconsciously giving more effort.
Line 3: Yes, I know Leivo is a right-shooting LW/RW so why not have him and Dube on their natural sides? One, Leivo had his best success on LW last season with the Canucks (although I believe he played about 50/50 on the LW and RW last season, so I miiiight be wrong). Two, Dube, as we all know, was an absolute monster in the Playoffs playing RW. Having Leivo's shot on his off-side combined with Dube's amazing speed on the right side will leave the defense having no idea what to expect. Plus, combining Leivo's and Backlund's fantastic play-driving ability will allow Dube to flourish and truly develop into the two-way stud he was projected to be when drafted. He was always viewed as a possession monster as a prospect, but hasn't quite shown that in the NHL. This will finally allow him to take it to the opposition while at the same time developing his defensive game alongside a defensive stud like Backlund.
Line 4: Lucic and Ryan played their best hockey with eachother last season. They were both significantly worse away from eachother but combined to form a very solid duo. Having them on the 4th line rather than the 3rd line this season will allow them to take even more advantage of the opposition. While Lucic brings very little in terms of offense, he is undeniably a very smart player and always knows where to be, which has made him very effective in the defensive end. Combine that with Ryan's two-way ability and Simon's playmaking ability (Simon ranks very, very high in regards to shot-assists, something Ryan and Lucic could really benefit from), I think this line will very easily outperform their competition. Plus, they've all been very strong play-drivers over the years.
I think these 4 lines all have the ability to outperform their competition to a significant degree and bring skillsets that really compliment their linemates well. I see a lot of offense coming out of this group of lines, while also being able to completely control play throughout the season and allowing Markstrom to see much less workload in net.
Ok, at work right now. Rough draft.
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Leivo
Gaudreau - Monahan - Mangiapane
Simon - Backlund - Ryan
Lucic - Bennett - Dube
Nordstrom
The day 1 starting line up will be really different in game 10. Feel that Hannafin will be replaced by Vali very quickly if all remain healthy.
I think a lot of people would consider yours a whacky combination. I don't... but I think it's light years from what the highly conservative Flames would consider.
Guadreau - Monahan - Leivo
Tkachuk - Backlund - Lindholm
Dube - Ryan - Mangiapane
Lucic - Bennett - Simon
Line 1: Offense Line. Should be really good at putting the puck in the net think of Leivo as the +1 (Like how the Canucks used to have a Sedins +1 line. Heavy O-zone starts.
Line 2: Same deal except that Lindholm is a significantly more talented +1. They shoulder the toughest PVP minutes. I'd think of them more as Line 1B then Line 2.
Line 3: Junior line 2, Ryan is the 3rd best Center so let him be the 3rd Center.
Line 4: The "Energy" line. Fortunately they can play a little. Should do well so long as they're deployed as a 4th line (so low leverage spots against bottom 6 comp).
So, I'm going to post 2 options:
Option 1 (not so crazy changes): This one keeps Monahan and Gaudreau together. Yeah, I know, fans are tired of this, but Monahan know how to score and #13 is an awesome playmaker.
However Wardo can't start him in the D-zone how he (wrongly) did during playoffs.
Gaudreau- Monahan- Dube
Mangiapane - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Bennett - Backlund - Leivo
Lucic (ewww) - Ryan - Simon
Option 2 (let's go crazy) - Well if you can't trade players, let's blow the lines up.
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Simon
Tkachuk-Monahan-Dube
Bennett-Backlund-Mangiapane
Lucic-Ryan-Leivo
First line Simon alert!!!!!!
Just to play devil's advocate and have some fun: Haynes style.
This is completely against any analytics advising.
However, considering his experience with Crosby and Malkin I would give him a chance to show what he could do.
This would spread the wealth and create a second and third line with 6 very good players.
still don't think you break up the Monahan Gaudreau pairing just yet.
Tkachuk Lindholm Mangiapane
Gaudreau Monahan Dube
Bennett Backlund Leivo
Lucic Ryan Simon
The top line gets top line minutes, the 2nd line gets easy minutes for scoring, 3rd line gets some of the tough minutes the top line doesnt see, and the 4th line can be a defensively sound line which provide a net zero presence.
Gaudreau-Monahan-Dube
Tkachuk-Lindholm-Mangiapane
Bennett-Backlund-Leivo
Lucic-Ryan-Simon
Bottom two lines can do a little more heavy lifting than last year, second line still good defensively but with a touch more firepower (hopefully), give the top line all the high ground they can handle.