Sweaty palms in Calgary

Clarifying the nature of Treliving's offseason bet

I recently noted that extreme conclusions tend to be generated out of the gate every season. In the absence of prior data, the brain takes the fresh stuff a little too seriously.

Even when you “know” the first 10 games are more noise than signal, it’s nearly impossible not to mentally draw projection lines through those few precious data points.

Which is why we probably shouldn’t be taking the Flames’ early struggles too seriously. Specifically, their last seven games have, without hyperbole, been some of the worst hockey the club has played under Sutter during his second tenure here. After finishing last year with the second-best shot share (CF%) and fifth-best expected goal ratio (XGF%) at even strength, Calgary fell to ninth and 19th in each measure, respectively, after their most recent loss to New Jersey (their 10th game of the year).

Those numbers are actually buttressed by their first three games of the year, however, which is the only period the club has looked like Sutter helmed hockey team so far. In their last seven contests, their XGF% of 43.5 is 27th in the league, a putrid run for a team that fancies itself a cup contender.

Digging into the results, you find that the entire top of the rotation has stepped into an elevator shaft to start the year. And the malady doesn’t just infect new additions like Kadri and Huberdeau. Previously reliable performers like Andrew Mangiapane, Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, and Rasmus Andersson are getting steamrolled at 5on5 from a shot-and-chance perspective. It’s tough to win when your money forwards and top defensive pairing spends the game on their heels.

This is an inversion of the team last year, a club whose engine was a dominant 1L. The contrast between the two different iterations has been…jarring.

Glancing into the abyss

As mentioned, not a lot of weight can be lent to a seven-game sample at the start of the year, surprising as this spate of incompetence under Sutter’s baleful glare may be.

Anxieties are high in Calgary but not just because this market is used to being disappointed. Brad Treliving's summer gamble was a significant one, and it set the organization on a very specific path - contend now or sink utterly.

The sudden Gaudreau departure and Tkachuk trade demand painted Calgary’s GM into an unenviable corner. After reaching a high watermark in the regular season (and then cresting against the rock of McDavid in the second round), Treliving’s initial mission was to keep the band together and try again. Alas.

The new mission, thrust upon him in earnest, became re-opening the contention window. The Gaudreau era’s inauspicious end seemed to signal the onset of an inevitable but uninvited rebuild. That is until the Florida Panthers called inquiring about Matthew Tkachuk.

The Tkachuk for Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar trade was a remarkable turnabout for the team. From rebuild to retool. Gaudreau lifted himself out and Huberdeau slotted into his place. Treliving even granted #10 the same long-term contract he offered #13.

It was a bit of Rumpelstiltskin magic, spinning straw into gold. But the sudden emergency and its unlikely resolution also became a distraction from the bigger picture.

In their pursuit of a cup, the challenge that has frustrated the org’s decision-makers is if their top-end is good enough to take on the best in the West.

In 2018-19, they finished near the top of the standings and then got their teeth kicked in by MacKinnon and the ascendent Avalanche. Then, they did it again in 2020-21, running smack into McDavid and Draisaitl in the second round.

The question of “how do we win a cup?” was answered by another question: “how do we get over the hump with this core?”

This changed to “how do we keep this core?”

And then changed again to “how do we replace this core on the fly?”

Now the new question becomes: “Is this core even as good as the one we replaced?”

The club limping out of the gate, with the new top-end being the lame leg, has obvious implications. It makes sense for Flames fans and management to be glancing at Huberdeau’s stat line nervously. Even if they know he must be better than this.

Deep in the red

The Flames under Treliving have been deficit spending for years.

Their prospect cupboard and futures asset pile are dire. The club hasn’t graduated a single prospect since 2018. You can count the number of bluechip kids in the org on one finger (Matthew Coronato).

Last summer, they chose just three players at the draft, all of whom profile as longshots to hit 100 NHL games. As things stand, the Flames have already traded six draft picks between now and 2025, including the ‘25 first-rounder in the deal to move Monahan to Montreal. The club is also almost completely capped out for next season already.

Meaning a big chunk of the future has already been spent. Calgary’s one of the oldest teams in the league, and a sizable chunk of their roster will begin to age out within the next three seasons.

The rebuild was delayed this past offseason - incredibly, fantastically - but at a cost. The new window opens now but will be of shorter duration and uncertain quality. Impatience is understandable.

The clock is ticking.